ABI Research forecasts that global EV revenue will quintuple by 2021, to reach $58 billion. Converging trends such as multimodal transport and ride-sharing will help to drive the rapid growth.
“The role of vehicle electrification in urban areas is part of a broader smart mobility model that includes shared vehicles, charging options, and driverless electric vehicle fleets of cars, buses, trams, and light rail,” says ABI Senior Analyst Susan Beardslee. “No singular option prevails; in fact, innovative manufacturers are creating ways for them to converge.”
ABI cites examples such as Ford, which has developed a new family of electric bicycles that can fold up and fit into an EV, and Continental, which is manufacturing batteries and engines that can better accommodate small, personal EVs.
ABI notes the soaring EV market in China, where regional vendors such as BYD are handily outselling OEMs like Chevy, Nissan, and Tesla.
“The US is taking longer to embrace the trend, with many residents expressing hesitation to let go of their private, singular vehicles as we move toward a shared, smart mobility transportation model,” says Beardslee. “Once the price point of electric vehicles starts to drop, as evident with Tesla’s Model 3 and the forthcoming Chevy Bolt, and manufacturers address range anxiety, we believe that the US market will see a jump in its sales. Over time, we expect greater adoption through fleet purchases including Uber and Lyft.”
“While the market’s current lack of sufficient standards and infrastructure is impacting the broader adoption of electric vehicles, we believe that the greater access, variety, and flexibility of electric vehicles and increasing urban congestion will positively influence EV adoption,” concludes Beardslee. “The long-term forecasting of global energy needs from Exxon shows the sobering impact of an unsustainable 35% to 140% increase in energy requirements.”
Source: ABI Research