Analyst predicts Tesla will have a near-monopoly in EVs

As Tesla soars and the legacy automakers waffle, a classic disruption scenario, unthinkable only a couple of years ago, seems ever more likely. The latest to reach this conclusion is analyst Alexander Haissl of Hamburg’s Berenberg Bank, who predicts in a recent report that Tesla will end up with a near-monopoly of the EV market.

“Complacency about EV technology is worse than perceived,” writes Haissl (via Forbes).

“Despite more talk of developing EVs for mass-market adoption, a lack of real action and strategic commitments betray their underlying conviction, with no clear pathway to high-volume EV production before the mid-2020s.”

Tesla is out-investing the competition, which is trying to save money by building on legacy engineering rather than developing new technology. “We estimate Tesla will invest $32.7 billion over the next 5 years – roughly 40% more than Daimler and Volkswagen combined have committed for their EV projects,” Haissl writes.

Tesla retains a significant advantage in the battery field. “Tesla/Panasonic continue to exhibit a clear advantage on cell and pack technology compared to all peers, on chemistry, cooling and cost,” Haissl said. “Clear visibility about high-volume cell-sourcing strategies continues to elude traditional manufacturers.”

The bank also examined the EV strategies of some of the legacy OEMs:

Mercedes-Benz – “High investments, but strategy for battery cell sourcing is not the most competitive.” Mercedes has announced total investment of 10 billion euros ($11.4 billion) in electric engineering and its EQ brand, and the same amount in battery capacity, the highest among the “traditionals.”

Volkswagen – “Larger investments in battery capacity could be necessary.” To supply its electric fleet by 2025, VW needs about 150 gigawatt hours of battery capacity a year, and capacity planned so far isn’t enough.

BMW – The i3 made the company a front-runner because it was designed from scratch to be electric. Now it has reversed that strategy, and slipped into wait-and-see mode. “We see the risk that BMW is making the same mistake twice on EVs – being too early with the i3, and now basically giving up the strategy of dedicated models/platforms and production concepts.”

Renault Nissan – a first mover with the Zoe and LEAF, with good battery cell sourcing from LG Chem, but its batteries produce less energy than Tesla/Panasonic.

Ford – “Investments focused on plug-in hybrids, but no EV strategy.” The Focus electric is not competitive, and it looks unlikely that Ford will catch up in the foreseeable future.

GM – “Chevy Bolt solid but no clear EV strategy.” GM’s focus has been to keep costs and risks low, which is why the Bolt’s battery pack and powertrain are supplied by LG.

Fiat Chrysler – “EVs to remain niche.”

 

Source: Forbes

  • dogphlap dogphlap

    I never thought I’d say this about an analyst but Mr Morris is dead right at least about the legacy car companies. It’s understandable that they would go for the least cost path, particularly as all their income is currently coming from ICE vehicles but electrifying an ICE car or designing a new car to accommodate ICE, plug in hybrid and BEV drive trains (Hyundai’s and VW’s current strategy) is always going to produce a compromise vehicle. It’s the classic Kodak moment, for obvious reasons they don’t want to cannibalise their income source but if they don’t take serious steps towards carving out a large part of the forthcoming move to EVs it will be too late for them. This is not a time to be timid.

  • Vincent Wolf

    Europe will successfully fight Tesla in sells of EVs in the near future but Detroit will never be a factor. Which eventually will lead to China becoming the world’s largest car exporter by a factor of three or more. Detroit will become irrelevant.

  • Karl Arne Andreassen

    Totally wrong analysis.
    The really big producer’s of EV is non of the mentioned. Its company’s like BYD and Futura in China.
    Company’s like Hanergy is destined to have there share of the market with EV’s that partly run on Ga solar cells with 50% effect.
    Tesla is a frontrunner but has not nearly the capacity and the prices that the market is demanding.
    GM has made the mistake not to service the world’s second largest EV market, the Norwegian, with there Bolt from day one.
    The biggest revolution in EV the next year will be from Volvo and SAAB both with new Chinese owners ready for the latgest EV market in the world, China.
    The journalist needs to have an insight and a world outlook, if he still want to write about car news.