Each year, Navigant Research releases a report that forecasts future trends in the plug-in vehicle (PEV) market. The latest edition predicts that annual North American PEV sales should break the one-million mark around 2024.
The new report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, notes that North America is the world’s strongest market for light-duty PEVs, with more than 133,000 sold in 2014, and predicts that this will continue to be the case. Navigant estimates that the US market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of between 14.7% and 18.6% between 2015 and 2024, and that annual PEV sales in 2024 will exceed 860,000 in the “conservative” scenario and 1.2 million in the “aggressive” scenario.
The report includes a detailed look at the geographic distribution of plug-in sales. Most of the action is in California, where PEVs already account for more than 3% of the state’s total light-duty vehicle market. State incentives, together with the state’s Zero Emission Vehicle program, are expected to push PEV penetrations in Cal to between 15% and 22% by 2024.
The other 10 states that participate in the ZEV program are expected to see similar growth. Navigant predicts that Hawaii, Washington, and Georgia could also see penetration rates above 7% in 2024.
“Automaker adoption of PEV technologies as adaptations for existing model lines is growing significantly, and these technologies are being placed into larger vehicle segments such as sport utility vehicles (SUVs), trucks, and minivans,” said Navigant Analyst Scott Shepard. “Similarly, the introduction of next-generation, fully electric vehicles with ranges near or above 200 miles and price points below $40,000 is expected to drastically increase mass-market PEV acceptance as a pragmatic transportation option.”