Clean tech consultant Julian Cox made some interesting points about the coming disruption of the auto industry in a presentation at CleanTechnica’s recent Cleantech Revolution Tour in Berlin.
Cox begins his talk with a recap of some past technological disruptions, which he says have usually played out within 20-30 years (good news for us older EVangelists – we can hope to see the end of the movie). Kodak is only one example of a company that invented the technology that would later kill it. Did you know that Exxon invented the lithium battery in the 1970s?
Cox went on to argue that the Tesla Model 3 will be not only better, but cheaper (in terms of total cost of ownership) than any comparable legacy vehicle. He takes us through point-by-point comparisons of the Model 3, the BMW 328i and the Toyota Corolla (!).
Mr. Cox also examines the economics of selling (as opposed to producing) EVs from the standpoint of the incumbent auto companies, and concludes that, once consumers have the option to buy a compelling EV, and are able to comparison-shop between electric and fossil-fueled options, the Dinos of Detroit could well be sucked into a death spiral, hastened to their extinction by sub-prime leasing.
Cox’s arguments are closely reasoned, with detailed examples and many (mostly interesting) digressions, so it’s difficult to summarize them in a brief blog post. Alas, many of those who most need to hear what he has to say likely lack the attention span to view the entire video.