European registrations of new battery EVs dropped sharply in August. According to JATO Dynamics, monthly sales fell by 36% compared to 2023, the largest drop recorded since January 2017. BEV market share fell from 21.8% in August 2023 to 16.6% in August 2024.

Time to close up shop here at Charged, and go back to driving gas-guzzlers? Well, not just yet. The sales situation isn’t good, but it’s more nuanced than the “EVs are finished” headlines currently making the rounds.

For one thing, the overall auto market in Europe is in decline. According to JATO’s data for 28 European markets, the number of new cars (all powertrains) registered in August declined by 16% compared to the same month last year. Some 8.64 million new cars have been registered in Europe so far in 2024—an increase of only 1.9% compared to the same period last year. “If this trend continues, the end-of-year results could present an overall decline in vehicle registrations,” said JATO Global Analyst Felipe Munoz.

For another, much of the decrease is down to one country. The number of EVs sold in the EU grew by just 1.3% in the first half of 2024, but the increase in sales would be 9.4% if Germany were excluded from the figures, according to Transport & Environment. Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, prematurely ended its EV subsidy program last December, and EV sales fell by 16.4% in the first half of 2024. Coincidence? Well, in Belgium, which incentivizes EVs by offering more favorable depreciation rates, EV sales increased by 48% in the first half.

More recently, WirstschaftsWoche reported (via Clean Energy Wire) that, spooked by the threat of Volkswagen Group plant closings, the German government prepared to introduce new tax breaks for company EVs.

Could this help spark a turnaround in ’25? We’ll see. As JATO’s Mr. Munoz noted, “EVs continue to be more expensive than already-pricey combustion engine cars.” Other factors holding back buyers include “the lack of clarity around incentives and concerns around the low residual value of EVs.”

Also complicating predictions for future sales: the rise of Chinese automakers. Pretty much all the European brands saw their EV sales crater in August, but the Geely Group saw a 52% increase, and BYD added 18%.

Source: JATO Dynamics