EV Engineering News

China’s 51% EV tipping point comes with a couple of caveats

New energy passenger vehicles (the Chinese term for what we call plug-in vehicles, including EVs and PHEVs) have achieved a year-to-date market share of 51% in China. According to registration data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), plug-ins have exceeded a 50% market share for each of the last five months.

China is the big dragon of the world’s EV market—the majority of the world’s plug-in vehicles are both built and sold there. In 2024, global production of plug-in passenger vehicles was around 17 million, and China accounted for about 12 million of those (over 70%). Around 11 million of these were sold in China, and a million were exported to other markets.

The 51% figure sounds like an impressive tipping point (and it is), but there’s a caveat: if we consider only battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), the market share figure is 31%. So plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which are a declining presence in other advanced EV markets, still make up a substantial share of China’s vehicle market.

PHEVs qualify for incentives in China, and it’s widely assumed (by the Western EV press, although there are no hard figures available) that most of them are seldom or never plugged in, which would pretty much negate their environmental benefits. (Read skeptic John Voelcker’s thoughts on the subject.)

China’s EV industry is tearing around like a teenager in a Tesla, and some fear that it may end in a crash. A raft of automakers are chasing a finite pool of buyers, leading to cutthroat price competition. Noting that China is the world’s most competitive EV market, Electrek’s Fred Lambert predicts that the huge number of EV models on offer is “unlikely to be sustainable, but the best will rise to the top.” The New York Times reports that many automakers have loaded up with debt, and government officials have started a campaign against “involution,” or excessive competition.

Source: Electrek

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