A team of researchers from Canada’s Simon Fraser University have published a report that paints a pessimistic picture of EV adoption in the Great White North, at least in the short term.
“Electric vehicles are not likely to make up more than one percent of vehicle sales in the next decade and no more than four or five per cent by 2030,” write Professors Jonn Axsen and Suzanne Goldberg. “There is hope electric vehicles could grow to more than 20 per cent of vehicle sales by 2030 with policies that increase these vehicles’ availability and variety, such as California’s Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate.”
The Canadian federal government currently offers no incentives for EV buyers, but several provincial governments do.
Axsen and Goldberg conducted a survey of current and potential EV buyers, and found that awareness of EVs is low – two thirds of Canadian consumers are not familiar with those currently on the market. Also, supply is limited – about 10 models are available in Canada at select dealerships.
Most of the highlights of Electrifying Vehicles: Insights from the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study will be familiar to those who follow the EV scene:
- “PEV Pioneers” (current EV owners) tend to be of higher income and education and are more engaged in environment- and/or technology-oriented lifestyles, relative to “Mainstream” respondents (non-EV owners).
- Most Mainstream respondents have little familiarity with PEVs, and are particularly confused about the concept of a PHEV.
- Only 20-33% of Mainstream respondents are aware of public chargers, but awareness does not seem to influence PEV interest.
- About one third of Mainstream respondents want a PEV. The vast majority want a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) rather than a pure electric vehicle (BEV).
- All PEV models are associated with being pro-environmental, while the Tesla is more associated with images of style and success.
- With today’s electricity grids, usage of PEVs can cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80-98% in British Columbia, around 45% in Alberta, and 58-70% in Ontario.
- Mainstream and Pioneer PEV respondents are generally open to the idea of enrolling in a “utility controlled charging” program.