Will China’s crackdown on subsidy fraud be a boon to ternary battery makers?

Li-ion Batteries 18650 - Pouch Cell (Charged EVs)

Following the news that five automakers bilked the Chinese government for some $150 million in new energy vehicle subsidies, the government has adjusted its subsidy policies. Market analyst CCM believes that the changes will benefit the makers of ternary Li-ion power batteries (batteries with ternary cathode materials such as LMO, NCM/NCA, LFP, etc.).

The firm forecasts an immediate boom in demand for ternary Li-ion batteries from 4.4 GWh in 2015 to 10 GWh in 2016.

Early in 2016, China’s Ministry of Finance launched probes into some 90 new energy vehicle firms. In September, it exposed five manufacturers that had been involved in fraud, all of them makers of electric buses.

According to CCM’s research, the new subsidy policies will decrease subsidy amounts for electric buses and trucks, while leaving the subsidies for passenger cars intact. This will lead to increased production of passenger cars, which are the main users of ternary Li-ion power batteries, and decreased production of e-buses, CCM believes.

 

Source: Green Car Congress